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    摩根士丹利：经济增长风险不减 美股本轮反弹空间有限

    来源 摩肩接毂网
    2024-07-05 01:09:51

    策略师Michael Wilson表示，由于经济增长风险依然重大，美国股市反弹的空间有限。

    “上周的坚挺走势最终只会是又一次的熊市反弹，”Wilson表示。“我们现在关注的关键基本面是经济放缓，我们认为盈利估值太高了。”

    摩根士丹利预计标普500指数本轮反弹最多可升至4，250点至4，300点，较周五收盘位高3.4%。和小盘股的百分比涨幅可能相对较大，因为此类情形下往往是如此。

    Wilson仍然是华尔街最高调的空头之一，也准确预测了最近一轮抛售潮。他预计，标普500指数到8月中旬的第二季度财报季结束时将在3，400点附近交投，较最近收盘位低18%。

    “认为本轮涨势不只是超卖反弹的主要理由是，美联储可能考虑在9月份按兵不动，”Wilson写道。但是，“通胀仍然太高了，美联储不满意，所以不论投资者希望会有怎样的转向，都不足以改变股市的下行趋势。”

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